Transient MJO and Snow Cover Affecting Climate
10/15/2024, 11:44 am EDT
Negative Pacific North America Index COULD Bring Great Plains Rain
10/21/2024, 6:11 am EDTCharts of the day: 10-day forecasts.
Discussion: Weak upper trough cuts off over Southwest Brazil propelling a heavy rainfall episode this week through next week. Significant relief to the long-term drought is certainly implied.
Week-2 Valid October 27-November 2, 2024: Fierce Northern Brazil heat/dryness; Southern Brazil rains continue.
Discussion: The heavy rain pattern in South-central Brazil does not end although intensity eases. Ongoing hot and dry weather continues across Northern Brazil. Argentina is trending hotter.
Week-3 Valid November 3-9, 2024: Brazil rains are ending.
Discussion: The wet weather in Southern Brazil abates with near to slightly below normal rainfall indicated by ECM. The North Brazil dryness and attendant heat continues.
Week-4 Valid November 10-16, 2024: Wetter Argentina, maybe.
Discussion: Wet weather shifts to Argentina in the week-4 forecast according to ECM while Brazil is broadly drier although close to normal rainfall in far Southern Brazil. *The previous week-4 forecast turned Argentina wet which was reversed drier this week.