Regional Differences but June 2023 Was (Nationally) Near Normal
07/11/2023, 2:03 pm EDT
Active MJO develops, should strengthen El Nino.
07/17/2023, 3:08 pm EDT
Highlight: 94L may still develop otherwise ALL CLEAR.
Fig. 1: Satellite view of the North Atlantic basin and primary features.
Today’s discussion: Upper shear across the Caribbean Sea increased slightly since yesterday. The upper shear in the subtropics is weak. Tropical Disturbance 94L drifts generally eastward with a 50% chance of tropical cyclone development over the next few days (Fig. 1). The Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) reveal a robust warm (+1.0C) regime (Fig. 2) although the northern Gulf has cooled off during the past 7 days (Fig. 3).
Fig. 2-3: The Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperature anomalies and 7-day change.