Southeast Europe/Black Sea Region Drought Continues

Charts of the day: EDO and NOAA soil moisture analysis.

Discussion: A major drought is in-place across Southeast Europe and Western Turkey. Drought ALERT is widespread in these areas according to the Europe Drought Observatory (EDO). The NOAA/CPC daily soil moisture analysis identifies the Southeast Europe drought extension to Southwest Russia including most of the Black Sea region.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid July 28-August 3, 2024: Upper trough brings a cooldown; Showery Caspian Sea region and north into Russia.

Discussion: Upper trough resides over the Baltic Region causing a widespread temperate to cool regime across much of Europe and Western Russia. East of the upper trough, a showery regime is widespread just east of the Black Sea and just north of Southwest Russia.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid August 4-10, 2024: Hotter/drier Southwest Europe.

Discussion: Of interest is an emerging hot and dry upper ridge across Southwest Europe. Downstream, an upper trough resides just north of Caspian Sea. Southeast Europe remains very dry. The Black Sea region is temperate and on the dry side while Southwest Russia gains some shower activity.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid August 11-17, 2024: Showers are backing into Southwest Russia.

Discussion: Dryness and anomalous heat persist in Spain, a new drought area. A showery regime continues Interior Southwest Russia and eastward. The Black Sea region to Southeast Europe stays dry and is rewarming.