Identifying Drought and Hurricane Risk in the U.S. for Later Summer

Fig. 1-4: The NOAA/CPC probability of exceedance forecast for precipitation during JUN/JUL/AUG 2025 and JUL/AUG/SEP 2025 compared to the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for JUN/JUL/AUG 2025 and September 2025.  

Discussion: Alignment between NOAA/CPC probability forecasts and the constructed analog prepared by Climate Impact Company is in close agreement for precipitation patterns for meteorological summer 2025 into September 2025. Forecast confidence is above average on two high impact climate regimes which is a significant drought centered on Iowa (and vicinity) and land-falling tropical cyclone risk in the northeast Gulf of Mexico region. The evolution of each risk peaks in August and September.

The NOAA/CPC probability of exceedance precipitation forecast is very dry on the Nebraska/Iowa border for JUN/JUL/AUG shifting east to Iowa for JUL/AUG/SEP (Fig. 1-2). At the same time, the wet risk to the northeast Gulf region is twice as confident for mid-to-late summer. The CIC-CA precipitation anomalies match the NOAA/CPC probability of exceedance projections, especially the dry zone centered on Iowa (Fig. 3-4).

Based on the climate regime projections indicated, rapidly developing drought during summer 2025 is anticipated across the Western U.S. Corn Belt. The strong drought over the Southwest U.S. to finish the spring season eases due to an anticipated wet monsoon which pushes high pressure north and northeast from the Southwest States during the summer season. To compensate for the summertime ridge shifting northward from the Southwest U.S., a downstream upper trough causes much of the wet weather indicated in the Gulf States and East Coast. However, eventually, once we’re into AUG and SEP, the high wet risk in the northeast Gulf region is related to land-falling tropical cyclone risk.