North Atlantic Basin 2024 Seasonal Activity Forecast Update: Steady, Very Active and Dangerous Season Ahead
05/31/2024, 8:01 am EDT
Neutral ENSO Here to Stay in June
06/04/2024, 2:32 pm EDT
Charts of the day: The West Pacific marine heatwave contributes to the APR/MAY hot weather regime in Asia “spurring LNG demand ahead of summer months”.
Discussion: A persistent marine heatwave in the mid-latitude West Pacific has elevated high pressure aloft risk for much of the past several years. A strong marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific in 2014-16 having tendency to re-emerge in that area last decade shifted westward toward the China Coast and eastward to the Dateline in this decade. The marine heat wave is vividly evident east of China and Japan now and aloft is well-correlated to strong high-pressure ridging extending across the mid-latitude West Pacific to Mongolia during the past 45 days. A second area of high pressure is located across Southeast Asia also associated with record warm SSTA in the Indian Ocean to Maritime Continent. The high pressure caused extreme heat in Southeast Asia, more recently India, and much of China in APR/MAY 2024 causing an unexpected early season air conditioning demand and according to Reuters, “spurs LNG demand ahead of the summer months”.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid June 9-15, 2024: Southern China is less hot due to rain; Elsewhere heat continues.
Discussion: Upper trough forms east of China helping to ease heatwave conditions for the southern half of China where wet weather is likely. However, searing heat remains in the forecast as mid-June approaches due to strong high pressure fueled in-part by warmer than normal oceans across India, Southeast Asia, and the northern half of China.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid June 16-22, 2024: Dry/warm East-central China.
Discussion: The upper ridge pattern stretches across Mongolia to Northern Japan with a second ridge over India. The result is persistent Northern China and India unusual heat. Southern China remains wet where heat is suppressed.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid June 23-29, 2024: Hot forecast could be hotter!
Discussion: ECM projects large high-pressure areas across Mongolia and Northern China and off the Southeast China Coast. Expect the anomalous hot pattern to continue, possibly stronger than indicated for Southeast Asia.