Tropical Depression 3 is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm today, turn north-to-northwestward, and strike the upper coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected on the upper South Carolina Coast/Lower North Carolina Coast late tonight and Sunday. The next storm name is Chantal.

Regarding ENSO, the equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat anomalies stay marginally warm in JUN-25. Implied is no risk of La Nina return, although NCEP CFS V2 is boldly forecasting La Nina for late 2025, with marginal support pointed toward El Nino.

The 12Z GFS indicates a cool/wet upper trough moving into West/North Europe to end the recent heatwave and push the heat toward the Black Sea region (Fig. 1). Unfortunately, Western Europe is likely to turn hot again in the 11-15-day period.

In South America, a cold burst is forecast early-to-middle week. The air mass is not expected to reach the Brazil coffee growing areas. The coldest morning is Tuesday while Wednesday morning is nearly as cold.