NOAA reissues their significant wildland fire potential outlook for September and October. Not surprising is the rapid risk increase for many parts of Central and Southern California plus all Northern California. The above average risk extends to Northern Nevada and Southwest Idaho. Added is the western portion of Washington. Wildland fire potential risk is above average near many major city and town locations for Western Washington and California.

The equatorial Pacific Ocean upper-ocean heat is slowly cooling. The cooling trend, if continued, supports a return of La Nina for quarter 4/2025. The Nino34 SSTA is close to the La Nina threshold while the Nino3 SSTA has shifted to La Nina phase.

Significant wet weather shifts across the southern U.S. over the next 5 days. Excessive rain causing a flood risk emerges in Kansas today and Arkansas tomorrow (where severe storms are likely). Excessive rain causes flooding across Western Texas late week. The 5-day rainfall totals through the weekend are in the 3-5-inch range centered on Arkansas/Louisiana, the Southeast Coast including Florida, and the New Mexico/Texas state line.

Tropical cyclone activity during 2025 so far has featured tropical cyclone tracks mostly near and off the U.S. East Coast. One possible explanation for lack of activity in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and deep tropics is the persistent (much) stronger than normal trade winds preventing systems from developing.