In the Caribbean Sea an ALERT remains in effect for a possible tropical cyclone forming in early November. GFS continues to indicate this system becomes a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane, and travels toward Florida and possibly the East Coast.

An ALERT for tropical cyclone development in the Caribbean Sea remains valid for next week. The last two GFS model runs develop a Northern Caribbean Sea hurricane which travels toward Florida and possibly the U.S. East Coast in early November.

On and off Great Plains wet weather for late October/early November is reliant on evolution of a negative phase Pacific North America (-PNA) index pattern. If -PNA develops, an upper trough cools the West and forces southerly flow out of the western Gulf of Mexico to interact with cold fronts in the Great Plains and cause rainfall.

Weak upper trough cuts off over Southwest Brazil propelling a heavy rainfall episode this week through next week. Significant relief to the long-term drought is certainly implied. ECM "weeklies" ease but do not end the Southern Brazil into early November. Northern Brazil becomes the focus of hot and dry weather.