During the past 30 days, ECM has produced a wet bias with their rainfall forecasts in the 16-30-day timeframe. Conversely, the GFS is too dry.

Early season snow cover has developed over North/Northeast Russia. The snow cover in that region for later September is above normal. Snow cover expansion is likely. The GFS 15-day temperature anomaly forecast indicates widespread cooler than normal temperatures with snow snowfall across Northern Russia and the attendant cool air mass extending southward.

Prior to the solar cycle 25 peak, forecasts made claimed a potential weak minimum similar with the last solar peak may occur which would set-up the possibility of a Dalton Minimum (3 consecutive solar minimum last observed 1800-1830 when the planet cooled slightly). Other forecasters projected an all-time record strength solar cycle maximum peak. Verification reveals peak was somewhere in-between.

A strong stratospheric warming (SW) episode emerged over the weekend across Antarctica. 15-day forecasts maintain the event. The SW event is contributing to strong negative global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM). Stratospheric warming events over Antarctica have less predictable influence on the southern hemisphere continental weather due to the moderating influence of the maritime climate.