The latest NOAA/CPC long-lead probability forecasts for the U.S. for the month ahead (May) and seasonal (MAY/JUN/JUL) outlook indicates EXTREME climate risk ahead!

In today’s updated summer 2021 outlook the temperature trend was much warmer and the CDD forecasts show that change particularly in July and August. The July forecast roared from 374 to 400 CDD while August surged from 322 to 340 CDD.

La Nina 2020-21 is barely hanging on as the Nino34 SSTA is right at the La Nina threshold of -0.5C. Other Nino SSTA regions are similar. Neutral ENSO is expected the next 1-3 months and possibly through meteorological summertime. However, there remains a great debate on whether La Nina returns.

March 2021 was another warm month ranking 14th warmest in the 1895-2021 climatology. The North-central U.S. ranked in the “much above” normal category while the remainder of the U.S. (except the Great Basin, California and the Southwest) were warmer than normal. North Dakota came close to a record warm March.