Adding Cold Risk to Midwest U.S. (with Rainy Periods) Hindering Crop Planting

Fig. 1-4: The daily soil moisture anomaly analysis and GFS+ECM (combined) percent of normal precipitation forecast through 15 days.

Discussion: Daily soil moisture anomaly analysis across the U.S. reveals many areas of “critically dry” conditions (Fig. 1). Included is parts of U.S. wheat, corn, and soybean growing regions. The forecast is stormy through 10 days, reversing drier in the 11-15-day period. The next 5 days features a Northern California to Quebec vigorous storm track plus heavy rain/severe weather in the East-central U.S. (Fig. 2). The central and southern Great Plains to Texas miss most of that rainfall. In the 6-10-day forecast, the GFS and ECM combine to produce heavy rainfall across Texas to the Tennessee Valley (Fig. 3). The northern fringe of the wet weather reaches the Kansas/Oklahoma border. In the 11-15-day period, the wet trough moves into the East, allowing much of the nation to turn drier (Fig. 4). The ECM and CFS V2 week 3-4 outlook favor wet weather across or near important crop areas (Fig. 5-6).

Of added importance to the forecast is cold weather. Focused primarily on the 8-14-day period, a chilly early April is indicated especially for the Eastern Corn Belt (Fig. 7). The risk of <32F extends to the Tennessee Valley and across the Midwest U.S. with widespread 20’s reaching the Ohio Valley in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 8).

Fig. 5-6: The ECM and CFS V2 precipitation anomaly forecast for the weeks 3-4 ahead across the U.S.

Fig. 7-8: The ECM ENS 8-14-day temperature anomaly forecast and the ECM ENS risk of <32F in the 11-15-day period.

During the past week, heavy precipitation has developed near north of Ukraine and across Southeast Europe while the immediate Black Sea region stays dry (Fig. 9). Soil moisture conditions continue to shift drier, in the immediate Black Sea region (Fig. 10). Wet weather remains in the 14-day forecast in the Black Sea region according to ECM (Fig. 11-12). The character of the wet weather is patchy and has a limited beneficial influence on the Black Sea crop areas.

Fig. 9-12: The 7-day percent of normal precipitation observations across Europe and Western Russia plus the daily soil moisture anomalies and ECM 14-day rainfall forecast focused on the Black Sea region.