Active MJO develops, should strengthen El Nino.
07/17/2023, 3:08 pm EDT
GFS Occasionally Indicating East Coast Hurricane In 11-15 Days
07/24/2023, 9:44 am EDT
Highlight: South American warmth, India rains, dry soil moisture emerging in Australia.
Fig. 1-2: GFS temperature anomaly forecast across South America and the 15-day percent of normal rainfall outlook by ECM ENS across India.
Discussion: Mid-winter offers a very warm 15-day forecast across Argentina and Brazil. The 0600 GMT GFS forecast is adjusted warmer (Fig. 1). Not much rain is likely in this very warm forecast into early August. Last week, heavy rain was observed across the India wheat-growing zones while Southeast India received very little rainfall. Dryness extended across Bangladesh to Thailand last week. The latest 15-day forecast keeps a wet pattern across central and eastern portions of India but leaves Bangladesh and Southeast India mostly dry (Fig. 2).
In Australia, the soil moisture conditions are turning drier on the East Coast and much of Western Australia (Fig. 3). The latest 15-day outlooks indicate a changeable thermal pattern through 10 days but averaging mostly warmer than normal in the extended-range (Fig. 4).
Fig. 3-4: The daily soil moisture anomaly analysis across Australia and the warming 8-14-day temperature anomaly outlook.