Europe/Western Russia/Black Sea Region Turns Colder and Stormy for Early April

Fig. 1-2: Mega-cluster ensemble temperature anomaly forecast for the next 5 days and 6-10-day period for Europe/Western Russia.

Discussion: This week, a transition to a sharp negative phase of the Scandinavia Index takes place. During -SCAND, an upper trough becomes dominant across northwest Eurasia. Initially, temperatures turn quite cold across Northern Europe/Northwest Russia featuring some arctic air (Fig. 1). In the 6-10-day period the upper trough elongates into Southwest Europe and the attendant chill expands across all of Europe reaching Ukraine and Western Russia (Fig. 2). The 6-10-day period is the cold peak when <24F will reach South-central Europe and all of Northern Europe plus Western Russia (Fig. 3). The <32F risk forecast hovers across most of Europe and reaches parts of the Black Sea region in the 6-10-day period (Fig. 4).

The -SCAND pattern brings a potent storm track lasting into the middle third of April. To the south of the evolving upper trough this week, a stretch of rain and some it heavy extends across the western Mediterranean Sea to Southeast Europe with plenty of snow in Southwest Russia (Fig. 5). The veil of precipitation expands in the 6-10-day period featuring more snow in Russia and a cold rain with some snow mixed in for Europe (Fig. 6).

In the 11-15-day period the -SCAND pattern is forecast to weaken only slightly. Consequently, the chilly pattern lingers in Eastern Europe to Ukraine (Fig. 7) and storminess across Europe into Western Russia prevails (Fig. 8).

Fig. 3-4: GFS ENS <24F and <32F threshold forecast centered on the 6-10-day period for Europe and Western Russia.

Fig. 5-6: Mega-cluster ensemble precipitation anomaly forecast for the next 5 days and 6-10-day period for Europe/Western Russia.

Fig. 7-8: Mega-cluster ensemble temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for the 11-15-day period for Europe/Western Russia.