North America Prevailing Upper Air Forecast for Summer, Autumn and Next Winter
05/19/2022, 11:47 am EDTAccumulated Cyclone Energy Index Vs. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
05/24/2022, 8:34 am EDT
Fig. 1: The Asia 7-day percent of normal rainfall observations from NOAA.
Discussion: The percent of normal rainfall observations across Asia during May 14-20, 2022, reveal little or no precipitation across the wheat-growing zone in China while the wheat-growing areas in Central India also stay dry although the southern half of India turned much wetter (Fig. 1).
The dry pattern across the wheat-growing areas in China is a concern. The most recent 15-day outlooks indicate a resistance to any significant rainfall in this region (Fig. 2). Note that dryness is also likely to stay locked-in over India wheat-growing areas.
Fig. 2: ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast for East/Southeast Asia.