Skill Scores Forecast Models Including AIGS and Graph Cast
02/26/2025, 1:57 pm EST
Update on Stratospheric Warming Event
03/02/2025, 10:52 am EST
Fig. 1-2: The ECM ENS 10-day percent of normal rainfall forecast and ECM 11-15-day percent of normal rainfall outlook.
Discussion: The dry Brazil/wet Argentina regime continues for another 10 days (Fig. 1). Anomalous heat is forecast just north of the Argentina rains extending into East Brazil. In the 11-15-day period, forecast models are starting to show some wet weather in East Brazil while Northeast Argentina rains ease while shifting westward (Fig. 2). Part of the fuel for the wet weather is the recent rapid rise in ocean temperature off the northwest coast of South America. The daily Nino12 SSTA is +1.36C and has warmed nearly 2C during the past 30 days (Fig. 3-4). The 2024-25 La Nina is weakening fast!
Fig. 3-4: The daily Nino12 SSTA observation and 30-day change.