The Super Warm Atlantic (and Global) Tropical SST’s
02/27/2024, 7:18 pm ESTNOAA Experimental Long-term Multi-indicator Drought Index
02/29/2024, 8:24 am ESTHighlight: 12Z GFS unloads >12 in. of rain on California and Alabama Coast next 15 days!
Fig. 1-2: The 12Z GFS 15-day precipitation amount forecasts.
Fig. 3-4: The 12Z GFS medium-range temperature anomaly forecast.
Discussion: The 12Z GFS produced excessive rainfall on the West Coast centered on California and the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico centered near Mobile, AL (Fig. 1-2). The amount forecast is for over one foot of rain. The U.S. medium-range forecasts show no sign of change as the warm bias remains locked-in over the eastern 60% of the U.S. (Fig. 3-4).
| EIA End | Forecast | 12-Hour Change | 24-Hour Change | 30-Year Normal | 10-Year Normal |
| 2/29 | 136.2 | 0.0 | +0.6 | 175.8 | 174.6 |
| 3/7 | 116.1 | -0.1 | +3.7 | 163.6 | 160.3 |
| 3/14 | 97.9 | -23.2 | -21.0 | 150.8 | 145.6 |
Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.