Tropics Getting Interesting! 96L Likely to Develop; ALERTs Posted Caribbean Sea/Central Atlantic Days 6-10
08/07/2025, 9:05 am EDT
Climate Impact Company Midday Update
Issued: Thursday August 7, 2025
Headline: Much of Texas and Virginia 10 consecutive days without rain (away from coast) according to 12Z GFS; U.S./Europe simultaneous heatwave.
Fig. 1-4: The 12Z GFS medium range temperature anomaly forecast for U.S. and Europe.
Discussion: Simultaneous heatwaves affecting high population regions of the U.S. and Europe are indicated by the 12Z GFS for the 6-10-day period (Fig. 1-2). The 12Z GFS trends much cooler in Southwest Canada. Significant dry duration in parts of the U.S. to the east of the Continental Divide includes much of Texas and Virginia to 10 days. The heatwave continues in the 11-15-day period anchored over the Central/Midwest U.S. and Western Europe (Fig. 3-4). Tropical Disturbance 96L develops and turns northward during the middle of next week along 60W. A second stronger system follows reaching west of 70W as a hurricane late in the 11-15-day period.
| EIA End | Forecast | 12-Hour Change | 24-Hour Change | 30-Year Normal | 10-Year Normal |
| 8/7 | 66.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 78.7 | 85.7 |
| 8/14 | 95.7 | -1.4 | -1.1 | 76.1 | 82.7 |
| 8/21 | 95.3 | -13.4 | -5.4 | 73.0 | 79.0 |
Table 1: The midday 12Z GFS U.S. population weight CDD projections into the final third of August.