Current Heavy Rain Episode Shifts South, More Rain Mostly Northern Half of Europe Late September

Charts of the day: Excessive rains shifting south this week.

Discussion: A historic early-to-mid September heavy rain episode across East and Southeast Europe continues. The focus of this week’s rain shifts to the west coast of Southeast Europe.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid September 22-28, 2024: Central/East-central Europe rains shift south.

Discussion: A cool and wet change across Northwest Russia while the extreme rain in Europe shifts south to Italy and is less extreme.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid September 29-October 5, 2024: A new wet weather pattern.

Discussion: Upper trough brings more wet weather to Western and North-central Europe extending to Western Russia. Southeast Europe dries out. Spain turns hot and dry.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid October 6-12, 2024: Eastern Europe rains.

Discussion: Near normal temperature across most of Europe with a showery regime for Eastern Europe and Kazakhstan. Warm pattern in the Black Sea region and eastward.