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Fig. 1: The 12-week Nino region SSTA tracker indicates steady neutral ENSO.
Discussion: ENSO phase remains neutral entering June. Last week, SSTA in the Nino regions were steady with a lingering El Nino signature in the Nino4 region near the Dateline (Fig. 1). Waters off the northwest coast of South America (Nino12) are quite cool. In the subsurface, cool waters are impressive and signal La Nina ahead near and east of 140W longitude (Fig. 2). However, marginal warmth lingers near the Dateline and the eastern equatorial Pacific cool water is not particularly deep, extending to about 150 meters. Southern oscillation index (SOI) continues to bounce either side of zero signaling the ENSO climate is also neutral. Tradewinds increasing is what is needed to up-well the cool subsurface water and initiate La Nina and that condition has not presented itself yet.
Fig. 2: The subsurface eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is quite cool east of 140W while warmth lingers near the Dateline.