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Highlight: ENSO is steady neutral with no sign of La Nina motivation for now.
Fig. 1: The Nino SSTA regions indicate steady neutral ENSO.
Discussion: The Nino34 SSTA regions are generally steady in the neutral ENSO range as mid-July approaches (Fig. 1). The 30-day average of the southern oscillation index (SOI) is also neutral averaging near zero. In the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean subsurface, moderate cool anomalies continue with about half the strength observed several months ago (Fig. 2). Diagnostics reveal steady neutral ENSO with lack of incentive to shift into La Nina. The latest collection of dynamic models forecasting the Nino34 SSTA through the end of 2024 continue to show evolution of weak La Nina although reliable forecasters ECMWF and Australia Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) maintain neutral ENSO phase (Fig. 3).
Fig. 2: The upper ocean heat anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Fig. 3: The latest Australia Bureau of Meteorology collection of dynamic models forecast Nino34 SSTA through 2024.