NOAA/NHC Forecasts Rafael Too Loop in Central Gulf
11/08/2024, 7:18 am EST
GFS And ECM Agreeable to “Sara” Striking Southwest Florida Middle Next Week As Hurricane
11/12/2024, 1:25 pm EST
Fig. 1: The 12-week Nino SSTA observations reveal the Nino34 SSTA returned to neutral phase last week.
Discussion: Passage through the equatorial East Pacific of the convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) during the past 10-14 days caused trade winds to ease and slow the up-welling process to deliver cool subsurface waters to the surface and initiate La Nina. The convection phase of the MJO is now located across the equatorial Atlantic and tropical Africa. Last week, the Nino SSTA regions warmed slightly and remain in neutral ENSO phase (Fig. 1). In the subsurface, the cool fuel to up-well to the surface and cause La Nina onset is trending weaker (Fig. 2). The anomalous cool water in the equatorial East Pacific is about half (or less) the intensity of most La Nina episodes.
Fig. 2: The weekly equatorial Pacific Ocean subsurface temperature anomalies.