Midwest Heavy Rains Continue into Early July; Expansive Heat and Dryness Follows

Chart of the day: Drying soil moisture zones.

Discussion: Rainfall required to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is increasing in parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Delta region, the Southwest U.S. including California, and Montana.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid June 30-July 6, 2024: Hot and dry Southeast; Midwest heavy rains.

Discussion: Hot and dry weather streaks across the southeast quadrant of the U.S. Meanwhile, gully-washer thunderstorms unload on the Midwest States and New Mexico.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid July 7-13, 2024: Expansive heat.

Discussion: Hot weather pattern is expansive across the East while the U.S. rainfall regime trend is drier although the Gulf of Mexico becomes showery.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid July 14-20, 2024: Hot and arid.

Discussion: Expansive hot weather during mid-July and the U.S. precipitation pattern is borderline arid.

Week-5 Ahead Forecast valid July 21-27, 2024: Steamy heat continues.

Discussion: The U.S. pattern remains steamy through late July. The Gulf of Mexico is beginning to look more active.