Once Again, CFS V2 Bounces Higher with Jan. 3-9 U.S. HDD Forecast

Charts of the day: Tracking the HDD’s.

Discussion: The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast shifts warmer to the 10-year normal next week and warmer than the 10-year normal for mid-December. Consensus of the CFS V2 and ECM indicates HDD recovery to normal national heating demand by January 1^st. The January 3-9 HDD forecast stays interesting as ECM maintains normal demand and CFS V2 is cold again.

Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid December 9-13, 2024 (24-hour change)

Discussion: Cooler changes across the Southeast U.S. due to wet weather. Elsewhere, a warmer than normal forecast shifts warmer from 24 hours ago.

Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid December 14-18, 2024 (24-hour change)

Discussion: MJO influence is evident for mid-December with coast-to-coast anomalous warmth and a significant warmer change since yesterday.

U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast

Discussion: A stormy pattern centered on the Southeast U.S. in the 6-10-day period. Wet weather returns to California in the 11-15-day period.

Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid December 19-23, 2024

Discussion: The extended range forecast stays warm particularly on the East Coast.