GFS And ECM Agreeable to “Sara” Striking Southwest Florida Middle Next Week As Hurricane
11/12/2024, 1:25 pm EST
Upper Air Pattern Causing Brazil Rains About to Change
11/15/2024, 11:43 am EST
Charts of the day: U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast and 30-day lead forecast model skill scores from the past 30 days.
Discussion: The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast climbs colder for Thanksgiving week. The skill scores during the medium range by primary forecast models indicate ECM ENS is the top model. Recently, ECM extended from 10 to 15 days. Skill scores for ECM will be added for ECM in the 11-15-day period soon.
Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid November 19-23, 2024 (24-hour change)
Discussion: ECM ENS trend is colder Interior West, and bold cold evolves over the snow covered central and southern Rocky Mountains. Other models are a little stronger with the cold with wider aerial coverage. ECM ENS maintains the warm pattern in the East, in fact warmer than yesterday.
Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid November 24-28, 2024 (24-hour change)
Discussion: ECM ENS widens the chill but with diminished amplitude. As indicated earlier, ECM ENS is consistent with the highest skill scores in the medium range. The one caveat is the potential for cold influence provided by snow cover emerging later in November.
U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast
Discussion: Tropical cyclone risk bringing heavy rain to Florida and the Southeast U.S. is lowering. However, entrainment of the attendant tropical moisture into a frontal system produces a wider aerial coverage of wet weather. A major rain and snowstorm remains in the 6-10-day forecast for the North-central U.S. The ECM ENS is somewhat drier in the 11-15-day period.
Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid November 29-December 3, 2024
Discussion: The extended range forecast is marginally warm South and East U.S. with wet weather in the Central and Southwest U.S.