Colder Forecasts in The U.S. Last 1/3 of January

Highlight: New Central cold days 11-15 shifts back into the East days 16-20.

Charts of the day: Latest U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast.

Discussion: The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast remains unchanged and still cold through next week. However, the forecast is considerably colder for the week of Jan. 17-23 as previously forecast moderation is not likely. The cold HDD forecasts remain through Jan. 30. In February, HDD forecasts collapse as the East turns warmer.

Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid January 14-18, 2025 (24-hour change)

Discussion: Not much change to the 6-10-day forecast where emphasis on deep cold across snow cover centered on the Mid-Atlantic region persists.

Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid January 19-23, 2025 (24-hour change)

Discussion: ECM ENS forecasts a long wave cold trough across the Central U.S. The ECM OP and GFS OP/GFS ENS are farther west with the trough. The 24-hour change identifies the trend, cold bias shifting westward while the East loses the big chill.

U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast

Discussion: Wet weather remains in the 6-10-day forecast across Mexico and far southern Texas while the remainder of the U.S. is drier than normal. In the 11-15-day period, a storm track develops on the Gulf Coast and extends to the East Coast while the Continental Divide is snowy.

Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid January 24-28, 2025

Discussion: After a 11-15-day forecast which shifts the cold westward, the 16-20-day outlook returns the big chill into the East to finish January.