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Highlight: Initial U.S. population weight HDD forecast for the 2024-25 cold season.
Fig. 1: The Climate Impact Company U.S. population weight HDD forecast for the 2024-25 cold season vs. the 10-year/30-year climatology.
Discussion: The Climate Impact Company initial U.S. gas population weight heating degree day forecast for the 2024-25 cold season is issued. Most striking is the warm mid-winter forecast as national HDD falls well below the 30-year and 10-year climatology (Fig. 1). The DEC-24 and FEB-25 forecasts are each close to the (warm) 10-year normal. Compared to the past 3 winter seasons, NOV-24 starts near the 10-year normal similar with the recent years (Fig. 2). The DEC-24 forecast remains near the 10-year normal which is considerably colder than both DEC-21 and DEC-23. The warm JAN-25 forecast is not as warm as JAN-23. Late winter forecasts are near the 10-year normal. Regionally (forecasts are available for each region), the high demand New York/New England and Ohio Valley markets reveal HDD forecasts which are generally near the 10-year normal except warmer than the 10-year normal in January and February (Fig. 3-4).
Fig. 2: The Climate Impact Company U.S. population weight HDD forecast for the 2024-25 cold season vs. the 10-year climatology and past 3 years.
Fig. 3: The Climate Impact Company New York/New England population weight HDD forecast for the 2024-25 cold season vs. the 10-year climatology and past 3 years.
Fig. 4: The Climate Impact Company Ohio Valley population weight HDD forecast for the 2024-25 cold season vs. the 10-year climatology and past 3 years.