Core of Argentina Drought Area Continues to Strengthen
01/08/2023, 4:04 pm ESTStratospheric Warming Event Evolving for Last 1/3 of January is Impressive
01/12/2023, 1:47 pm EST
Fig. 1: U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for NOV-22 through MAR-23.
Discussion: In a rare occurrence, the projected U.S. gas population weight HDD for January 2023 is warmer than the already verified DEC-22 value and projected FEB-23 forecast (Fig. 1).
The 12Z GFS stays super warm. Arctic air is appearing in Canada but staying north of the U.S. The 15-day outlook is adjusted warmer in Eastern Canada (Fig. 2). The atmospheric river pattern slamming California abates in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 3).
The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast according to the 12Z GFS is warmer (by 13 HDD) for Jan. 20-26 (Table 1).
Fig. 2-3: The 12Z GFS 15-day temperature anomaly forecast and the 11-15-day percent of normal precipitation outlook.
| Dates | HDD Forecast | 12-Hr Change | 24-Hr Change | 10-Year NML | 30-Year NML |
| Jan. 6-12
| 167.7 | +0.7 | +0.1 | 205.8 | 209.8 |
| Jan. 13-19
| 153.7 | -3.7 | -3.4 | 207.7 | 212.1 |
| Jan. 20-26
| 163.5 | -12.3 | -8.0 | 207.9 | 212.4 |
Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.