U.S. Energy Market Early Notes

Highlight: Hard-working summer 2024 (because of weather) continues to build.

Fig. 1: Tracking U.S. population weight CDD forecasts for summer 2024.

Discussion: Once again, Climate Impact Company raises the U.S. population weight CDD forecast for each month of meteorological summer (Fig. 1). The new forecast is the hottest so far and slowly getting closer to the hottest on record this century (Fig. 1). Anticipated electricity demand on the U.S. grid is on the increase.

Heat wave conditions evolve early next week. Within the 7-day forecast, maximum heat risk is next Tuesday according to NOAA (Fig. 2). Widespread 90’s with a few spots near 100 and excessive heat index BEFORE calendar summer. The entire PJM sector experiences a heat spike.

The NBM 7-day rainfall forecast identifies flooding thunderstorms into the U.S. Corn Belt and continued heavy rains across the Gulf of Mexico (Fig. 3). The southern heavy rains are shifting south. The dry areas in-between the Gulf and Corn Belt rains are increasingly hot inspiring drying soils. The U.S. population weight CDD forecast continues to increase to close June/start July (Fig. 4).

Fig. 2: Of the next 7 days, maximum heat risk is next Tuesday.

Fig. 3: NBM 7-day rainfall forecast across the East U.S.

Fig. 4: The U.S. population weight CDD forecast utilizing all models, their consensus, and comparing with 24 hours ago and the 10-year/30-year normal.