Summary of Initial 2025 North Atlantic Basin TC Seasonal Outlook

Highlight: The initial Climate Impact Company 2025 North Atlantic TC forecast indicates 17 storms, 7 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.

Fig. 1: The Climate Impact Company seasonal activity forecast and projected hurricane tracks for the 2025 North Atlantic basin TC season.

Forecast summary: The Climate Impact Company 2025 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season will maintain the 2016-24 active period. However, the 2025 forecast is slightly below the 2016-24 average activity except for the number of intense hurricanes. The forecast is slightly above the longer-term climatology. Key to the forecast is the marginal warmth forecast in the MDR, somewhat cooler than much of this decade. Upper ocean heat is near to above normal but somewhat less than recent years especially in the MDR. Consequently, seasonal activity, while still impressive, is held back slightly. Areas of anomalous warm water are forecast for the Caribbean Sea, the Bahamas, and Gulf of Mexico. Tropical cyclones tracking into these basins will have the chance to become major hurricanes mostly in September. The forecast projects 2 coastal hurricane strikes (Texas and the Carolinas) although the analog indicates up to 4 coastal strikes are possible. Above normal upper westerly shear near the U.S. Coast is projected therefore the coastal strike risk for hurricanes is cut back. The ENSO forecast for the 2025 tropical cyclone season is neutral phase which is supportive of above normal tropical cyclone activity. Forecast confidence on ENSO phase is below average for the late tropical cyclone season. The next update of the Climate Impact Company 2025 North Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone forecast is in late May. Other forecasters, such as Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk U.K., issue forecasts in early April and should be very close to the 17/7/5 outlook by CIC.