The Inevitability of a Northeast U.S. Drought Caused by the North Atlantic Warm Hole Upper Air Pattern
11/17/2024, 6:52 am EST
Charts of the day: Last week’s rainfall and daily soil moisture anomalies.
Discussion: Expected is a drier climate bias across South America due to emergence of Madden Julian oscillation in the tropical Indican Ocean/Maritime Continent over the next 2-3 weeks. The drier bias is underway during the past week centered on Paraguay, Northern Argentina, and Southeast Brazil. In South America, drought conditions continue across many sectors.
Week-2 Valid November 24-30, 2024: Drier Brazil, wetter Argentina.
Discussion: Upper ridge appears over Southeast Brazil to close November. The sensible weather is possibly hotter and drier across Brazil compared to the operational forecast. However, wet weather lingers and could be heavy across Northeast Argentina due to a strong cold front during the period.
Week-3 Valid December 1-7, 2024: Central/East Brazil heat and dryness.
Discussion: Wet weather influence due to a lingering upper trough is evident across Southeast Brazil. The wet weather could be farther south than indicated. In the remainder of Brazil, MJO-fueled dryness and anomalous heat strengthens.
Week-4 Valid December 8-14, 2024: Brazil dryness and anomalous heat continues.
Discussion: A drier and hotter trend across most of Brazil continues into the middle third of December.