NOAA/NHC Forecasts Rafael Too Loop in Central Gulf

Highlight: NOAA/NHC forecasts Rafael too loop in Central Gulf. Rafael spiked to category-3 major hurricane intensity overnight.

Fig. 1: NOAA/NHC 5-day forecast track for Category-3 Major Hurricane Rafael.

Discussion: Two days ago, HWRF forecast a second spike of category-3 major hurricane intensity of Rafael north of the Yucatan Peninsula which verified overnight. At 4AM EST, Category-3 Major Hurricane Rafael was located at 24.5N/88.0W or about 585 miles east of the Rio Grande. Rafael is moving west at 9 mph with top wind 120 mph and central pressure 956 MB.

The 5-day forecast (Fig. 1) has a different flavor this morning. Rafael remains forecast to stay well offshore. However, the storm slows down in the west-central Gulf of Mexico and is susceptible to a period of southwest shear ahead of a Central U.S. trough to briefly push Rafael northeastward over the weekend before lower atmospheric steering on the east side of a Mexico high pressure area guides Rafael back toward the southwest. While Rafael is a powerful hurricane now, the storm begins to weaken due to slightly cooler surface water, increasing upper shear, and dry air entrainment during the weekend. NOAA/NHC indicates Rafael loses much of the storm’s vertical intensity during the weakening process this weekend enabling the shallow steering flow to guide the storm southwestward early next week as Raafael becomes a remnant low.

To expect a category-3 major hurricane to weaken completely over the central Gulf of Mexico is a tall order so close monitoring remains necessary.

Tropical cyclone models are confused as 5-day tracks are clustered over the central Gulf of Mexico as steering becomes uncertain (Fig. 2). Models maintain an intense hurricane today followed by weakening to a tropical storm by late weekend although some models maintain hurricane intensity (Fig. 3). Intensity forecasts are in the tropical storm intensity range (or weaker) in 5 days.

Fig. 2: Tropical cyclone models and their 5-day forecast tracks for Category-3 Major Hurricane Rafael.

Fig. 3: Tropical cyclone models and their 5-day intensity forecast for Category-3 Major Hurricane Rafael.