Progressive MJO Pushes a Warm to Cold U.S. Thermal Transition
11/03/2022, 8:05 am EDTAnother Historic Month of Rainfall in Australia
11/07/2022, 5:04 am ESTHighlight: ALERT posted for a potential tropical system forming east of the Bahamas early next week.
Fig. 1: Latest weather satellite view of the North Atlantic basin.
Discussion: An ALERT remains posted for a potential tropical system forming east of the Bahamas on Tuesday of next week. If a system develops a west-northwest to west track toward Florida is likely. Some models do not develop an organized system. Regardless, a long duration onshore (wet) fetch develops and affects the Carolinas and possibly Central Florida. Excessive rainfall is possible. The trend is for the heaviest rain to shift northward. Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Lis will weaken in the Bay of Campeche the next few days.
Fig. 2: ECM rainfall forecast for next week.