Global Soil Moisture Observation Trend/Forecast

Fig. 1: February 2025 global soil moisture anomalies and 3-month trend.

Observation discussion: During the past 3 months, the Southwest U.S. and Northern Mexico drought has intensified (Fig. 1). Dry soils have also developed in Southwest Canada. Elsewhere, wetter soil moisture trend is evident across much of Canada. Central America and northwest South America soils are trending wetter. Additionally, much of Brazil soil moisture conditions are wetter from 3 months ago. In Uruguay and vicinity, drier soils are observed. Much of Chile is sharply drier. In Europe, drier soil conditions have emerged across France to Italy and northeastward into far western portions of Russia. Drier soil conditions have also emerged in the Maritime Middle East. Tropical East Africa drought is intensifying. However, dry conditions across south Africa have been removed. Drier soil conditions have emerged in Iraq and Iran plus Northeast India. Dryness in East China is intensifying where drought has emerged. Western Indonesia is trending wetter while the northwest and east coastal regions of Australia are wetter. Northern Australia trends drier during the past 3 months.

Fig. 2: February 2025 global soil moisture anomalies and 3-month (through June) forecast.

Forecast discussion: The 3-month outlook is based on preliminary precipitation forecasts from ECMWF and IRI/LDEO and CIC interpretation on prevailing soil moisture regimes. In the U.S., a major drought is forecast across the West and Southwest plus Northern Mexico (Fig. 2). Conversely, an arc of wetter conditions is projected across the Southern Canadian Prairies southeastward to the Mid-Atlantic States. The wet soil condition in Central America continues. In South America, the interior northwest is wetter while drier soil conditions are expected across West-central Brazil southeastward to Southeast Brazil. Drier soils are also expected in Chile to South-central Argentina. Tropical East Africa drought is expected to worsen while Coastal Southwest Africa drought regenerates. The drought located in parts of Northwest Africa worsens. A dry climate is forecast for Central Europe and near and east and southeast of the Black Sea region. A significant drought in the Middle East worsens. The East China drought is forecast to worsen during Q2/2025. However, a wetter climate is projected across Northeast India, Southeast Asia, and Northern China. Southern Indonesia to northwestern Australia shifts wetter.