27C SST Threshold for North Atlantic TC Development Ahead of Schedule
05/29/2024, 11:02 am EDT
U.S. Population Weight CDD Forecasts are Below 10-year Normal
06/03/2024, 11:26 am EDT
Charts of the day: Recent rainfall and 10-day forecast.
Discussion: The past 7 days have featured prohibitive dryness across Eastern Europe, Western Russia, and into the Northern Black Sea region. The ECM 10-day rainfall anomaly outlook indicates the Black Sea region to Southwest Russia stays mostly dry while Europe showery conditions persist and reach far Western Russia.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid June 9-15, 2024: Hot ridge northeast of the Black Sea.
Discussion: The upper ridge pattern is anchored over Western Kazakhstan and leads to hot and dry weather centered on the Caspian Sea region and vicinity. The Middle East and India heat is striking. Hot weather also extends from Northwest Africa to Spain.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid June 16-22, 2024: Eastern Europe/Western Russia warmth and dryness.
Discussion: The upper ridge shifts westward to Western Russia. The anomalous warmth expands across Western Russia and Easter Europe with mostly dry conditions. An upper trough brings wet weather to Western Europe.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid June 23-29, 2024: A broadening upper ridge.
Discussion: A broad upper ridge extends from France to Kazakhstan causing widespread anomalous warmth and mostly dry weather.