27C SST Threshold for North Atlantic TC Development Ahead of Schedule

Headline: Tropical showers ahead for the Gulf of Mexico and Florida waters.

Chart of the day: The 27C TC Threshold in the North Atlantic

Discussion: The 27C SST threshold required for North Atlantic tropical cyclone development is indicated.

Week-2 Valid June 2-8, 2024: Upper trough causes wet weather Cuba/Hispaniola.

Discussion: An upper trough causes an elongated area of heavy rain across Cuba and Hispaniola northeastward into the subtropical North Atlantic.

Week 3 Valid June 9-15, 2024: Gulf of Mexico turning wetter.

Discussion: Into mid-June, the wet weather across Cuba and Hispaniola splits with one center shifting westward into the Gulf of Mexico and a second sector shifting to the subtropical North Atlantic southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Week 4 Valid June 16-22, 2024: Tropical cyclone risk in the Gulf.

Discussion: A lot of tropical rain in the Gulf of Mexico features a tropical cyclone risk.

Week 5 Valid June 23-29, 2024: An active tropical pattern indicated.

Discussion: ECM indicates widespread rains across the Gulf of Mexico to the outer eastern tropical North Atlantic.