La Nina Fairly Strong During DEC-24 Onset Weakens in January
01/20/2025, 2:08 pm EST
Charts of the day: Drying soils, recent dry pattern, the marine heatwave catalyst, and dry outlook.
Discussion: A drying soil moisture trend is established across parts of West and Southwest Russia into Eastern Europe plus west/southwest Italy to Portugal and Northwest Africa. Last week, a very dry pattern stretched across most of Europe and Western Russia. The dryness is attributed to general high pressure aloft downwind a large marine heatwave in the east/northeast North Atlantic. The 15-day outlook maintains dryness across Eastern Europe and Southwest Russia.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid February 2-8, 2025: Dry pattern focused on Black Sea region.
Discussion: High pressure crests over Northwest Eurasia and maintains a warm pattern across much of Europe while the Black Sea region eastward stays dry.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid February 9-15, 2025: Drier trend.
Discussion: The outlook trend is drier across much of Europe and Western Russia with expansive warmer than normal temperatures.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid February 16-22, 2025: Continued warm and dry.
Discussion: The northeastern North Atlantic marine heatwave remains well-correlated to 500 MB high-pressure ridging sustaining the mild and mostly dry climate.