Stratospheric Warming Event for Middle February Risk Increasing

Fig. 1-4: The hour-384 10 MB temperature anomaly forecast by GFS, the 10 MB temperature anomaly analysis for Jan. 15-17 and the attendant following polar vortex pattern, plus the Climate Impact Company FEB-25 temperature outlook.

Discussion: Natural gas prices have collapsed to $3 based on the departure of Winter Storm Enzo’s attendant arctic air and milder East U.S. medium range forecasts. However, at the end of the overnight GFS model run, another stratospheric warming event is shifting from Asia to North America (Fig. 1). The forecast, which is not agreed upon by all models, indicates a similar look to the stratosphere as mid-January (Fig. 2) which spawned the polar vortex event of January 18-20 (Fig. 3). The forecast (by GFS) indicates potential for a returning cold shot during the 3^rd week of February although confidence is low. The Climate Impact Company FEB-25 temperature anomaly forecast indicates the cold risk, this time favoring the western half of the U.S. (Fig. 4). There is potential for rising natural gas prices, probably next week, if the potential cold scenario develops.