Houston Wednesday Morning Temperature Revised to Frigid Teens (Close to Uri/Elliot Peak Cold)

Fig. 1-3: The morning low temperatures for cold wave Uri and Elliot from earlier this decade and next week’s forecast in the Houston area.  

Discussion: The morning low temperature forecast for Houston is adjusted for colder readings to 17F making the cold peak for next week’s arctic outbreak rival previous cold events Uri and Elliot from earlier this decade (Fig. 1). The colder revision is due to a snow and sleet storm beginning Monday night and not ending until late Tuesday. The NBM (model) forecasts the potential of 2-4 in. of snow in the Houston to Baton Rouge stretch (Fig. 2). Tuesday night, skies are forecast to clear and given fresh snow cover a classic radiational cooling set-up causes extreme cold temperature risk. The local (East Texas/South Louisiana) snow cover causes a micro-climate as snow cover biases temperature colder, especially at night. ECM ENS forecasts >70% risk of <18F in coastal southeast Texas/southwest coastal Louisiana most focused on next Wednesday morning (Fig. 3).