U.S. Winter 2021-22 Is Warm So Far (But Character is Volatile)
02/10/2022, 12:50 pm ESTComparing February 2012 EDDI to Now
02/16/2022, 9:22 am EST
Fig. 1: NOAA state-by-state temperature rankings for January 2022 lead by a warm west/cold East mix and featuring a top 10 warm month for California.
Discussion: A colder trend for the West-central/Central U.S. initiated last night for next week. The colder change is inspired by increasing snow cover in the Great Plains. Early next week, an arctic air mass extends into a swath of snow across the northern Great Plains causing blizzard conditions which extend eastward to the Upper Midwest States (Fig. 1). Later in the week, a warm pattern in the central/south Great Plains abates in exchange for possible heavy snow and sleet late next week. The increasing snow cover invites <0F risk into the northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest (Fig. 2) while <32F risk covers most of the U.S. except the Gulf States (Fig. 3). Right now, there is a notable lack of snow cover from the northwest Great Plains to the Missouri Valley (Fig. 4). However, at least half of this stretch is snow-covered next week.
Fig. 2-3: GFS ENS risk of <32F and <0F for the 6-10-day period.
Fig. 4: Current North America snow covert location.