Extended hot weather for California.

Fig. 1: NOAA/NWS issues a Heat Advisory for the Central California Coast.

Discussion: Beginning tomorrow, high temperatures reach the 90’s at the coast with up to 105F inland lasting into the midweek for Central California. Consequently, NOAA/NWS has issued a Heat Advisory (Fig. 1). Excessive heat warrants an Excessive Heat Warning across the Desert Southwest States. The ECM ENS identifies the hot weather risk in the 1-5-day forecast (Fig. 2) likely to extend to the 6-10-day period (Fig. 3). The ECM ENS 1-5-day U.S. temperature anomaly forecast identifies the short-term heat core across California to the Great Basin (Fig. 4) expanding and intensifying in the 6-10-day period (Fig. 5). ECM ENS also projects an extended period of no rain across the hot weather zone aggravating early October fire risk (Fig. 6).

Fig. 2-3: The ECM ENS 10-day risk of >100F forecast implicates California.

Fig. 4-6: The ECM ENS 1-10-day U.S. temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast implicating California (and vicinity) for dry and hot weather.