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Fig. 1-2: NOAA/CPC probabilistic temperature and precipitation forecast for April 2025.
Discussion: NOAA/CPC issues updated long-lead probabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts today. The April 2025 outlook indicates above normal risk of anomalous warmth across the Southern U.S. and Atlantic Seaboard (Fig. 1). The remainder of the U.S. has an equal chance of above, below, or normal temperature. The precipitation outlook is moderately aggressive forecasting above normal precipitation in Washington and Illinois (Fig. 2). Moderate dry risk exists across the Southwest U.S. plus Florida.
The NOAA/CPC Q2/2025 climate outlook widens the warmer than normal risk to include much of the U.S. except the northwest quadrant (Fig. 3). The precipitation outlook for APR/MAY/JUN 2025 widens a dry climate risk across the Southwest States while maintaining wet risk in the Ohio Valley (Fig. 4). By comparison, the Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) forecast is stronger with the anomalous warm risk in the West (Fig. 5) while the wet risk is on the East Coast with stronger dryness in the Missouri Valley (Fig. 6).
The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates ongoing Southwest and Central U.S. drought likely to expand (Fig. 7). Drought lingers on parts of the Atlantic Seaboard.
The NOAA/CPC meteorological summer 2025 outlook indicates above normal temperature risk for the entire U.S. (Fig. 8). The outlook is dry across the Northwest and North-central U.S. with wet risk in the Southwest and East U.S. (Fig. 9). The CIC-CA forecast is similar with NOAA except not as warm in the Southeast States (Fig. 10-11).
Fig. 3-6: NOAA/CPC probabilistic temperature and precipitation forecast for APR/MAY/JUN 2025 (top) and the matching timescale of the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast.
Fig. 7: The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook from NOAA/CPC.
Fig. 8-11: NOAA/CPC probabilistic temperature and precipitation forecast for JUN/JUL/AUG 2025 (top) and the matching timescale of the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast.