The North Atlantic basin is producing significant tropical cyclones, but they are well out-to-sea and more of a threat to Europe than North America. The western North Atlantic basin remains protected from tropical cyclone risk by the tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) still located over Western Cuba.

Is this a climate change graphic? The 12Z GFS projects a tropical storm and two hurricanes between 40N and 45N latitude for Sep. 9th. The middle location storm is what GFS is forecasting for 91L. The farthest north system is “Danielle”. The 3rd system east of New England forms east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Note that the tropics are free and clear.

The low relative humidity dominating the central North Atlantic tropics in August but easing recently suggests the environment is improving for tropical cyclone development except for the upper shear pattern in the Caribbean Sea and central North Atlantic tropics.

Using NOAA population weight CDD observations, the U.S. weekly population weight CDD was variable – normal and warm – early during summer 2022. The hottest part of summer climatologically is when the hottest weekly CDD count occurred in July. Recently, briefly cooler national CDD was observed. The warm season 2022 finishes somewhat warmer than normal.