High Impact Climate: Heavy Monsoon Rains Australia/Argentina Drought Worsening

Fig. 1: The 15-day temperature anomaly forecast across the U.S. and Europe.

Discussion: Early calendar winter heating demand is sharply reduced at the same time for both the U.S. and Europe well into January (Fig. 1). Upper-level troughs off the West Coast of each region propel mild maritime influence consistently in the latest 15-day forecast.

The 15-day rainfall outlook is mostly dry across the drought region located in Argentina and far southeastern Brazil (Fig. 2). The drought in this region steadily worsens heading toward mid-summer.

The warmer than normal SST north and northeast of Australia fuel a stronger than normal early season wet monsoon. The latest 15-day outlook indicates heavy rains dominate Northern Australia into mid-January (Fig. 3).

Fig. 2-3: The 15-day rainfall anomaly forecast across Argentina/Brazil and Australia.