Chart of the day: A persistent warm ridge evolves across Europe.
Discussion: The 15-day upper air forecast by GFS indicates an amplified upper-level high-pressure ridge dominates the Europe climate favoring mostly dry and very warm conditions into the early New Year. One possible catalyst to the warmth is the unusually warmer than normal Mediterranean Sea.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid January 2-8, 2023: Record warmth possible in Europe.
Discussion: Amplified upper ridge over Europe produces unseasonably warm temperatures. Record warmth is possible. The warm pattern extends eastward across the Black Sea region and well east of Caspian Sea. East of Caspian Sea a stormy upper trough brings a variety of heavy precipitation while Europe is mostly dry.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid January 9-15, 2023: Decelerating warmth.
Discussion: The upper ridge loses amplitude, and the Europe/Western Russia climate cools off. Marginal warmth and dryness persist in Europe. East and northeast of Caspian Sea widespread snows are heavy.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid January 16-22, 2023: New cold air source region developing east of Caspian Sea. Europe stays warm.
Discussion: Across the snowy zone near and east-northeast of Caspian Sea the climate turns colder. Europe remains warm although wetter weather may arrive in Western Europe.