Since 1995, chilly temperature regimes in or very near the Brazil coffee growing areas during mid-winter (July) have occurred in 11 years. The average temperature anomaly of the 11 analog years is coolest just west of the coffee growing areas.

Soil moisture anomalies continue to trend drier across the Midwest U.S. Strong dryness extends from the central Great Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region. The GFS 15-day rainfall outlook maintains the dryness across most of the areas trending drier during May.

Regions of anomalous SSTA regimes in the North Atlantic basin are dramatic! The NAWH pattern east of New England biases the East U.S. cooler. A new MHW off the northwest coast of Africa has lead to Northwest Africa/Southwest Europe drought. A warm SSTA pattern in the deep tropics ahead of tropical cyclone season.

The long-standing 2020-23 La Nina climate pattern is fading. The southern oscillation index has steadily shifted into the El Nino-like negative phase during May and whopping daily values of -6 the past couple days.