The Midwest States have dried-out rapidly as D2/D3 drought has developed. Meanwhile, wet soil moisture trend in the Southeast U.S. is accelerating due to the recent heavy rainfall. The latest 15-day forecast maintains soaking rains in the Southeast States expanding northward throughout the East while the Midwest stays dry.

Although a couple days old, the clear trend of relative humidity anomalies in the mid-troposphere is wetter east of the Bahamas to the central North Atlantic subtropics plus across the central and eastern North Atlantic tropics. In this zone, any tropical feature is likely to develop given ample mid-tropospheric moisture.

While the national CDD projection for summer 2023 is not as hot as the past 3 summer seasons due to lack of heat especially during the first half of summer in the California and Northeast Markets, the ERCOT CDD forecast is trending hotter!

The U.S. population weight CDD forecast for the 2023 warm season (MAY-SEP) is adjusted slightly cooler as in general areas at risk of hot weather re generally not high demand electricity areas (except Texas). The 2023 forecast is markedly less warm than the past 3 years.