Soil moisture anomalies continue to trend drier across the Midwest U.S. Strong dryness extends from the central Great Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region. The GFS 15-day rainfall outlook maintains the dryness across most of the areas trending drier during May.

Regions of anomalous SSTA regimes in the North Atlantic basin are dramatic! The NAWH pattern east of New England biases the East U.S. cooler. A new MHW off the northwest coast of Africa has lead to Northwest Africa/Southwest Europe drought. A warm SSTA pattern in the deep tropics ahead of tropical cyclone season.

The long-standing 2020-23 La Nina climate pattern is fading. The southern oscillation index has steadily shifted into the El Nino-like negative phase during May and whopping daily values of -6 the past couple days.

All the ingredients are there, transient intense Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) to shut down trade winds, steady and intensifying negative southern oscillation index (SOI) to produce an El Nino climate, and exceptionally warm subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific to fuel a developing warm ENSO.