An area of low pressure is forming off the East Coast of Georgia along a quasi-stationary frontal system. Plumes of thunderstorm activity are ahead of this low-pressure area. Near the low-pressure area, a plume of water ocean surface water associated with Gulf Stream is in the 27C range.

The chart above identifies the warming of the atmosphere by a warm water zone known as a semi-permanent marine heat wave causing a semi-permanent upper-level high-pressure ridge (red) known as the ridiculously resilient ridge. The location of the ridge for each of the past 9 years is identified.

Presence of an upper trough across South-central Europe much of the next 2 weeks entraining buoyant low-level atmosphere moisture from the much warmer than normal western Mediterranean Sea causes a large area of heavy rain in the latest GFS 15-day forecast.

At midday, the 12Z GFS unloads heavy to extreme rain on the core of the U.S. drought zone located in Kansas and vicinity. Additional heavy rain is forecast for the Southeast U.S.