Forecast factors suggest the bulk of this year’s activity occurs in a 7-week period from late August to early October. Most of the tropical cyclone activity projected for 2023 (by NOAA, CSU, TSR, and CIC) should occur during this time.

The ERCOT System daily temperature average persists in the excessive hot zone into early next week. However, all forecast models are indicating the extreme heat should ease slightly.

Mid-troposphere relative humidity is very dry across the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea suppressing tropical cyclone risk.

July 2023 ranked 11th warmest in the 129-year U.S. climatology. Several states observed all-time-record hot months of July including Arizona and New Mexico where the wet summer 2023 monsoon failed, Florida (surrounded by record warm ocean surface temperatures), and Maine. Most of the West and South U.S. plus Northeast Corridor U.S. observed top 10 hottest mid-summer.