Today's medium-range forecast utilized the ECM ENS as the best model to identify expected medium/extended-range thermal/rainfall patterns across the U.S. However, the 00Z GFS roared hot weather into the Midwest U.S. causing a close watch by commodity markets on the U.S. AG Belt where ongoing drought is located.

Although an expected +IOD and El Nino climate pattern are expected and each should produce a dry climate for Australia, the month of June 2023 was quite wet arcing from northwest to southeast continent. The +IOD and El Nino climate patterns remain 1-3 months away!

The latest 15-day outlook trends much wetter for the central Great Plains, Missouri and Tennessee Valley(s) and vicinity. NOAA recently issued a 30-day drought outlook revised to substantially weaken the Midwest U.S. drought.

The June 23-July 2, 2023, severe weather pattern across the Central and East U.S. is immense with 4,234 reports during that time including 917 reports on June 25 and 647 reports on June 29.