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Fig. 1: The 12-week Nino SSTA region tracker indicates moderate-strength oceanic El Nino.

Discussion: Last week, Nino34 SSTA warmed to a robust +1.3C while waters off the northwest coast of South America (Nino12) are roasting at above 3C (Fig. 1). Waters near the Dateline are warming although lagging the East Pacific. Upper ocean heat is plentiful across the entire equatorial Pacific and most ferociously in the eastern equatorial Pacific acting as fuel to strengthen El Nino (Fig. 2). Latest collection of dynamic and statistical Nino34 SSTA forecasts by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society indicate an El Nino peak by DEC-23 and weakening toward neutral phase during Q2/2024 (Fig. 3).

Fig. 2: Equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat is expansive and fueling the developing El Nino.

Fig. 3: International Research Institute for Climate and Society collection of Nino34 SSTA forecasts from all dynamic and statistical models.