Strong Asia-Bering Sea-North Atlantic Index Inspires Important Climate/Weather Ahead
12/16/2024, 4:51 am EST
Daily IOD Index: -0.32 (back into -IOD phase)
Daily Nino34: -0.85 (strengthening La Nina)
Charts of the day: Short-term heavy rains northeast coast of Australia.
Discussion: The Australia rainfall outlook through early next week reveals persistent rains adding to 2-6 in. along the northeast coast of Queensland while most of the continent is dry. Daily soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals drought away from the Queensland Coast, along coastal New South Wales, and across much of the continental south coast.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid December 22-28, 2024: Widening anomalous heat and dryness.
Discussion: As MJO shifts east toward the Dateline, the subsidence on the back side of that convective event develops across Australia and is causal to a hotter and drier than normal weather pattern across the continent.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid December 29, 2024-January 4, 2025: Unusually dry in the East considering La Nina onset.
Discussion: The hot and dry pattern continues across much of Australia. Despite La Nina, the eastern continent is dry.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid January 5-11, 2025: Staying mostly hot and dry in the East.
Discussion: Wet weather returns to the western continent while the East remains mostly dry and somewhat hotter than normal southeast quadrant.