A Rapidly Warming Gulf of Mexico Ahead of Tropical Cyclone Season
05/05/2022, 10:18 am EDTApril 2022…Washington 3rd coolest/New Mexico 2nd driest on record. 2022 so far: Driest on record for California.
05/10/2022, 2:10 pm EDTDiscussion: Operational models are forecasting extreme rainfall over Queensland this week (Fig. 1-2). The wet weather extends to New South Wales. Additionally, some wet weather is also forecast for far southwestern continent. The wet weather in Queensland is caused by an inverted low-pressure trough inviting moist easterly trade winds into Northeast Queensland. A low-pressure system develops on the low-pressure trough axis and moves southeastward through eastern Queensland into mid-week to enhance the wet weather. The rainy pattern extends to New South Wales. Just-after midweek the low-pressure system moves to coastal southeastern Queensland and may try to gain tropical characteristics although late week heavy rain risk shifts offshore. Both the ECM and GFS indicate potential for 5-10 in. of rain.
Fig. 1-2: ECM and GFS 5-day rainfall forecast for Australia.