Overachieving Cold Event into Southern Brazil Coffee Areas

Highlight: Patchy frost in Southern Brazil Coffee Growing Areas This Morning; Tuesday Outbreak Stronger!

Discussion: A cold air mass has extended into South Brazil this morning. ECMWF temperature anomalies indicate departures from normal of up to 20C below normal in some areas (Fig. 1). Scattered reports of <0C are reported across parts of the Southern Brazil coffee growing areas.

Tomorrow morning, the cold core of the air mass shifts west of the coffee growing areas. However, a few scattered <0C are likely in parts of Northern Parana and Sao Paulo Monday morning (Fig. 2).

Although this morning’s <0C event is an over-achiever, the Tuesday morning event in Southeast Brazil remains the strongest of the sequence. Coldest anomalies are across and just south of Parana (Fig. 3). A wider aerial coverage of freeze or frost is possible for the southern coffee areas Tuesday morning.

By Wednesday, the cold air mass is losing intensity. However, a pool of lingering cold air is forecast by ECM near or just south of the coffee growing areas in Parana (Fig. 4). Consequently, isolated frost risk remains in this zone.

Overall, the event is stronger than previously forecast although not quite as strong as the episode earlier this winter season.

Fig. 1: ECMWF temperature anomaly forecast for 0900 GMT today. Reports of scattered <0C are present in the southern coffee growing areas.

Fig. 2: ECMWF temperature anomaly forecast for 0900 GMT tomorrow. Isolated <0C are possible tomorrow morning although the cold core of the air mass is to the west of coffee areas.

Fig. 3: ECMWF temperature anomaly forecast for 0900 GMT Tuesday morning. The coldest anomalies of the current event are located over Interior Southeast Brazil. Frost/freeze risk in the southern coffee areas is strongest of the event.

Fig. 4: ECMWF temperature anomaly forecast for 0900 GMT Wednesday morning. The coldest anomalies of the current event are beginning to fade. However, a pocket of lingering extreme chill remains near and south of coffee growing areas.