Identifying Drought and Hurricane Risk in the U.S. for Later Summer
04/24/2025, 5:59 am EDT
Fig. 1-4: Daily soil moisture anomaly analysis identifying drought zones in the U.S., Europe, South America, and Asia.
Discussion: Checking drought concern areas heading into May 2025 reveals dry-to-drought conditions across Nebraska and vicinity stretching to Northern Illinois while areas to the south and southeast have turned much wetter due to April rains (Fig. 1). Fierce Texas drought has shifted slightly southward, and some erosion is possible in the current wet pattern. Crop areas in Eastern Europe, Southwest Russia, and the Black Sea region remain affected by long-term drought (Fig. 2). Parts of Western Europe are developing dry soil conditions. In South America, long-term drought in Brazil continues and Northern Argentina dry soils have strengthened (Fig. 3). Southeast China drought is ongoing while dry soils to the north have lost some intensity (Fig. 4). Dry soils are affecting the eastern wheat growing areas in India and parts of sugarcane crops areas in Southeast Asia.
The U.S. AG Belt 15-day percent of normal precipitation forecast according to ECM ENS maintains a wet scenario for Texas and the southwest Great Plains while areas to the east are dry (Fig. 5). The Europe rainfall forecast has increased clarity this morning. Dryness stretches across Europe into the Black Sea region with the wet weather belt across Northwest Eurasia (Fig. 6).
Fig. 5-6: The ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecasts across the U.S. AG Belt and Europe.