Winter Storm Eowyn Blasts Ireland/U.K.; Dryness Prevails Central Europe/Western Russia

Fig. 1-4: The GFS+ECM 14-day percent of normal precipitation forecast for Europe and Western Russia plus the percent of normal precipitation observed last week and daily soil moisture analysis.

Discussion: As midday (LST) approaches, Winter Storm Eowyn strikes the West Ireland Coast with a 955 MB low pressure. Hurricane force wind gusts blast southern portions of Ireland and U.K. plus France, Spain and Portugal today as the storm weakens shifting eastward. A second storm, similar intensity, strikes West France early Thursday. Attendant heavy rains affect all west and southwest portions of Europe this week (Fig. 1). Next week, the low-pressure area shifts to the Mediterranean Sea causing widespread heavy rain (Fig. 2). However, Central Europe to the east of Caspian Sea is mostly dry. During the past week, the mid-winter dry pattern extending from Central Europe to Western Russia continued (Fig. 3). Daily soil moisture analysis reveals dry to drought soil conditions in parts of East Europe, Western Russia, and the Black Sea region (Fig. 4). The precipitation outlooks for FEB/MAR/APR 2025 from Climate Impact Company (CIC) and the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society are in general agreement on wet risk across Northwest Eurasia and dryness south and southeast of the Black Sea (Fig. 5-6). Agreement is marginal on wet weather risk to Western Russia and dryness in South-central Europe.

Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog precipitation anomaly forecast for Europe/Western Russia for FEB/MAR/APR 2025 compared to the probabilistic precipitation outlook by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.